Analogies between markets and fantasy football

Understanding team projections is a crucial piece of the puzzle for gaining a competitive edge in fantasy football. While discussions on individual talents often take center stage, sharp drafters know that team-level projections are of near equal importance.

Interestingly, the relationship between team projections and individual player projections is strikingly analogous to the concept of total addressable market (TAM) in business.

• TAM Primacy: A company’s valuation is capped by its Total Addressable Market (TAM), just as a player’s fantasy ceiling is bound by their team’s offensive environment.
• Market Cap Parallel: Transcendent market caps typically emerge from vast TAMs, mirroring how record-breaking fantasy seasons usually occur within high-powered offenses.
• Small Market Constraints: Companies can achieve respectable valuations by monopolizing smaller TAMs, but won’t become the next Google. Similarly, talented players who are volume hogs on high-powered offenses can put up high scores, but top fantasy charts at a lower rate due to lower efficiency.
• Risk and Reward: Emerging markets offer the highest potential returns despite uncertainty. In fantasy, evolving offenses or shifting strategies present prime opportunities. While others seek “safe” picks, embracing calculated risk often yields league-winning advantages.

Of course, there are exceptions to all of these rules. However, they help form a simple mental model for building an investment thesis on players, helping managers identify both hidden gems in expanding markets and potential busts in shrinking ones.